Ford Broncos and Frequency Illusion

Back in December, at long last, my daughter got a five day spot at daycare. This was some much needed relief from the week to week childcare guessing game we had been playing with a part time nanny, family help, and some floating workday schedules.

A full-time spot at daycare comes with something I haven’t experienced since March 2020: a commute. Every weekday morning I drive 15 minutes to drop-off and turn around and head home, and I do the same thing in the afternoon. Sometimes solo and sometimes Melissa comes with. We usually do pickup together, which was important in the dead of winter when it was pitch black at 3:30 and someone needed to keep the toddler awake in the backseat.

We were sitting behind a Ford Bronco at a stop light last week when I made a joke about a bunch of guys sitting quietly in a board room at the Ford headquarters when someone finally speaks up and says, “Gentlemen, I think 25 years has been long enough. It’s time to bring back the Bronco.”¹

Nice of him to flee from the police during the golden hour

Since then, we have seen Broncos everywhere. Three per daycare commute, plus more than one on our weekend adventures.

This is, for sure, some frequency illusion² at work. To put it simply: it’s when you start regularly noticing a thing after recently becoming aware of it.

So frequency illusion was on my mind while I was reading one of my favorite niche corners on the internet: Paul Lukas’ Uni-Watch. Paul’s blog (and dearly departed ESPN Page 2 column) covers the evolution of sports uniforms and logos, as well as the aesthetic and design choices in pro sports and the world at large. Paul’s covered everything from new uniform unveilings to misspelled player names to what certain ballpark hot dog vendors wear. From time to time, he also uses the blog to share his feelings on whatever’s on his mind. Usually about sports, but sometimes about big moments in his life—the end of a relationship, the emotional strain of eldercare—and sometimes about nothing monumental at all like a bike trip into Manhattan to pick up take out. If Paul decided to share something, nine times out of ten it means it’s he’s got a unique perspective on whatever’s on his mind.

All of this is why a recent piece of his is so profoundly disappointing to me. An anecdotal list of recent ugly incidents in pro and college sports, or involving pro (or former pro) athletes, with the conclusion that because he’s noticing more if it, it must be happening more:

Obviously, I realize that brawls, unruly fans, and unsportsmanlike behavior have been part of sports forever. But it seems like the frequency of such incidents is much greater nowadays. And before you say that this is all due to people capturing everything on cell phones, consider this: I don’t think soccer coaches have been head-butting opposing players all along and we just never noticed, nor do I think a cell phone had anything to do with bringing yesterday’s LSU/South Carolina scuffle to our attention. To me, this all seems more like a reflection of how people now seem to think that behaving like a “grown-up,” for lack of a better term — whether in sports or elsewhere in our society — is now an option instead of a default.

Now, maybe it’s true that people are behaving worse toward one another than they used to, but I doubt it. I think Paul, like all of us, has access to a fire hose of news, footage, and hot takes³. And, as all of us are want to do, he’s determined that a series of unrelated incidents is revealing a pattern. And he’s failed to recognize the possibility that coaches have been head butting players all along⁴.

What’s most disheartening about Paul’s recent piece is the accompanying comment section, 90% of which is pearl clutching boomers complaining about how impolite everyone in the world is based on isolated incidents of bad driving or poor behavior in public. Perhaps unsurprisingly, these complaints turned into full on adjudication of Gen X and Millennial parenting style AND how coddled and entitled Gen Z is. One commenter went even further, talking about the old notion of leaving the world a better place for future generations like that’s a bad thing⁵.

I don’t think of myself as naïve; I have seen and experienced plenty of bad behavior by other people in all sorts of settings. But I think the point that Paul and the comment section has completely missed here is that we all hold on to the moments in our lives that are out of the ordinary: the bad driver, the uncomfortable conversations at work, the time a comedian gets slapped in the face at the Oscars. And because everyone in the world walks around with the capability to take video at all times, the unusual or uncomfortable moments are captured and preserved at a higher rate.

I have no real understanding of how algorithmic social media feeds work, but I’m willing to assume that it preys on our instinct to look for patterns. If I spend too much time watching a Instagram reel about Kate Middleton’s photoshop controversy, then suddenly that’s the only thing I’m recommended. And if that’s all I’m seeing, I start to assume it’s the only thing anyone is talking about.

And so Paul, who is otherwise a fantastic and thoughtful writer, developed a theory based on a notion and sought evidence to prove his theory right. And by putting it out to his readers, he gave them all permission to do the same thing. Facts and statistics be damned.

A song, an album, and a playlist:

1. So Long Frank Lloyd Wright by Madison Cunningham: a wonderful cover of a Simon and Garfunkel song⁶

2. Sunshower by Couch: a Boston based funk band that’s always perfectly mixed and just so groovy

3. My Faves from The Bear (so far): all the best dad rock needle drops from The Bear⁷

1. I couldn’t decide if I should post an article about the OJ freeway chase or the old Dana Carvey bit about the LAPD framing OJ, which I’m sure hasn’t aged well.

2. Also known as the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon.

3. Paul is also getting a stream insider information and journalistic tips.

4. I thought about further refuting this with specific examples of bad behavior by coaches throughout history, but that’s really not the point of what I’m trying to say here. But, if you’re so inclined, you should check out this video outlining the decades of Bobby Knight’s horrible behavior as head basketball coach of Indiana, or read about Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes punching a player in the middle of a game.

5. The Uni Watch reader base tends to hold classic looking teams like the Steelers and the Celtics in high esteem, so perhaps I shouldn’t have been surprised by the comments.

6. Also, I think Frank Lloyd Wright might be my Roman empire.

7. Yes, including Taylor Swift